| "Flood defense and water resources development are planned for setting reliability targets on the basis that perfect prevention of damage is sociologically and economically impossible. The reliability is expressed by frequency of extreme events and infrastructures are built under the plans. Public discussion on dam plans in the present Japan usually focuses on the validity of frequency analysis to estimate a 100-year flood. In spite of the academic development of frequency analysis, it increases confusion in public discussion. This paper analyzes such gaps between technical views and the actual decision process for flood control and water resources development." |
