| We conducted the ecological risk assessment of triclosan in Japanese river water by adopting a risk analysis procedure using Bayesian statistics. The environmental concentration distribution of triclosan was derived by a hierarchical Bayesian model that explicitly incorporates spatial variability in the environmental concentration. The species sensitivity distribution of triclosan was derived by using a Bayesian model. We estimated the median and credible interval of the Expected Potentially Affected Fraction (EPAF). The estimated median of the EPAF indicates that the 0.4% of species is affected by triclosan in Japanese rivers. The estimated credible interval of the EPAF was wide, indicating large uncertainty for the estimation of EPAF. |
