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論文投稿 Ensemble Flood Forecasting of Typhoons Talas and Roke at Hiyoshi Dam Basin

作成年度 2016 年度
論文名 Ensemble Flood Forecasting of Typhoons Talas and Roke at Hiyoshi Dam Basin
論文名(和訳)
論文副題
発表会
誌名 Journal of Disaster Research
巻・号・回 12 11(6)
発表年月日 2016/12/01
所属研究室/機関名 著者名(英名)
ICHARM, PWRITomoki Ushiyama
DPRI, Kyoto UniversityTakahiro Sayama
ICHARM, PWRIYoichi Iwami
抄録
In order to be able to issue flood warnings not hours but days in advance, numerical weather prediction (NWP) is essential to the forecasting of flood-producing rainfall. The regional ensemble prediction system (EPS), advanced NWP on a local scale, has a high potential to improve flood forecasting through the quantitative prediction of precipitation. In this study, the predictability of floods using the ensemble flood forecasting system, which is composed of regional EPS and a distributed hydrological model, was investigated. Two flood events which took place in a small basin in Japan in 2010 and which were caused by typhoons Talas and Roke were examined. As the forecasting system predicted the probability of flood occurrence at least 24 h beforehand in the case of both typhoons, these forecasts were better than deterministic forecasts. However, the system underestimated the peak of the flooding in the typhoon Roke event, and it was too early in its prediction of the appearance of the peak of the flooding in the Talas event. Although the system has its limitations, it has proved to have the potential to produce early flood warnings.
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