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論文投稿 Assessing Flood Disaster Impacts in Agriculture under Climate Change in the River Basins of Southeast Asia

作成年度 2019 年度
論文名 Assessing Flood Disaster Impacts in Agriculture under Climate Change in the River Basins of Southeast Asia
論文名(和訳)
論文副題
発表会 Springer, Natural Hazards
誌名 Natural Hazards
巻・号・回 6 
発表年月日 2019/06/01
所属研究室/機関名 著者名(英名)
ICHARMBadri Bhakta Shrestha
UNU-IASEDP Perera
NILIMShun Kudo
ICHARMMamoru Miyamoto
Yusuke Yamazaki, Daisuke Kuribayashi, Hisaya Sawano, Takahiro Sayama, Jun Magome, Akira Hasegawa, Tomoki Ushiyama, Yoichi Iwami and Yoshio Tokunaga
抄録
This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included the Pampanga River Basin (PRB) in the Philippines, the Solo River Basin (SRB) in Indonesia, the Lower Mekong River Basin (LMRB) in Cambodia and Vietnam, and the Chao Phraya River Basin (CPRB) in Thailand. Flood damage to rice crops was assessed by flood damage functions considering flood depth and duration and the growth stage of rice plants. Flood characteristics such as flood depth, duration and distribution were computed using the Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to assess flood hazards under the present and future climatic conditions produced by MRI-AGCM3.2S. The damage assessment methodology for rice crops employed in this study was verified using data on past flood events. Then, flood damage assessment was conducted for both present climate (1979-2003) and future climate (2075-2099) conditions, using MRI-AGCM3.2S precipitation datasets. Flood damage was assessed for worst cases chosen from each climate period and for floods of 50- and 100-year return periods with different rainfall patterns chosen from each climate scenario. The results of flood hazard and damage assessment show that the flood inundation area for a 100-year flood may increase in the future by 20 % in PRB; by 66 % in SRB; by 27 % in LMRB; and by 27 % in CPRB. The flood damage area of paddy fields for a 100-year flood may also increase in the future by 16 % in PRB; by 55 % in SRB; by 23 % in LMRB; and by 13 % in CPRB.
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